<\/p>\n
On coming to power Jim Hacker, the protagonist of \u201cYes, Prime Minister”, a British comedy series, asks about the hotline to the Kremlin. It works only \u201ctheoretically”, he is told; once they reached a switchboard operator who \u201cdidn\u2019t seem to speak much English”. What\u2019s more, using it \u201ctends to create unnecessary panic at the other end”.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
The farce springs to mind for those who, these days, urgently try to speak to China about security frictions in Asia, from its \u201cgrey-zone” bullying<\/a> of neighbours over disputed islands and shoals to its wargames around Taiwan. The Philippines has a hotline to China\u2019s foreign ministry. But when it calls to discuss China\u2019s water-blasting of its coastguard ships, the Chinese either do not answer, or say the hotline is not for \u201ccomplaints”, or accuse the Filipinos of causing trouble. Japan\u2019s defence-ministry hotline has not stopped intensified Chinese probing of contested waters.<\/p>\n America, especially, wants military-to-military (\u201cmil-mil”) communications with China, akin to those of the cold war with the Soviet Union. At a time of deep geopolitical rivalry, with the air and seas in Asia abuzz with military forces, America says open lines of communication would help prevent incidents from sliding into war. China, though, regards military contacts not as prudence but as a favour: granted in times of goodwill and withheld in periods of displeasure.<\/p>\n Mil-mil contacts were halted after a visit to Taiwan by Nancy Pelosi, then Speaker of America\u2019s House of Representatives, in 2022. Chinese jets and warships harassed American ones with risky moves. Now tensions have eased a bit following a summit in San Francisco last November between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping, the American and Chinese presidents. Unsafe encounters are much reduced. Mil-mil meetings are resuming.<\/p>\n That will be a relief for Asia\u2019s defence bigwigs at this week\u2019s Shangri-La Dialogue, an annual talkfest in Singapore. They don\u2019t want to be caught in a war between China, their main economic partner, and America, the security guarantor for many. Last year Lloyd Austin, America\u2019s defence secretary, could merely shake hands with his Chinese counterpart, General Li Shangfu, over dinner. Little matter; General Li was soon purged.<\/p>\n This time Mr Austin is set for a full bilateral with the new man, Admiral Dong Jun. They spoke over video in April. Similarly, America\u2019s chairman of the joint chiefs of staff has had a video call with his opposite number. The Military Maritime Consultative Agreement, a forum on safety at sea, has also resumed.<\/p>\n Nevertheless, any military contact will be halting. For one thing, notes Rush Doshi, until recently a White House official, worsening relations between the mainland and Taiwan could strain mil-mil contacts when they matter most. China recently held two days of \u201cpunishment” military exercises, encircling the island, after the inauguration<\/a> of Taiwan\u2019s new president, Lai Ching-te.<\/p>\n Moreover, the main warfighters\u2014the heads of America\u2019s Indo-Pacific Command and of China\u2019s eastern and southern theatres\u2014have yet to talk. And in China\u2019s hierarchical system, notes Mr Doshi, many of China\u2019s brass will shrink from contact with Americans, fearing it \u201ccan only bring trouble”. Pentagon officials assume that \u201cthe Chinese will go dark” in the early phase of any crisis. Nevertheless, Americans still think talking is better than not talking; nuances in formulaic Chinese remarks can still yield insights.<\/p>\n For a sense of the dangers, consider the back and forth between American forces and the People\u2019s Liberation Army (PLA) as Robin Hsu, a military enthusiast, does from a hilltop in southern Taiwan. Overlooking the vital Bashi Channel, his radio comes alive with a stentorian warning from the PLA to an American jet\u2014probably a \u201cRivet Joint” surveillance plane nearby: \u201cYou have entered airspace over China\u2019s contiguous zone.” Back comes a drawl: \u201cRelaaaaaax! I\u2019m in international airspace.” Minutes later, another warning: \u201cThis is Chinese naval warship. You are approaching me. What is your intention?” Plainly, relations are far from relaxed.<\/p>\n Indeed, China uses such risk to warn America: if you don\u2019t want a mishap, pull back. America, by contrast, learned during the Cuban missile crisis of 1962 that risk must be mitigated because superpower confrontations can escalate to nuclear war. All of which prompts some at the Pentagon to ask: does another Cuban missile crisis have to happen before China comes to its senses?<\/p>\n \u00a9 2024, The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved. From The Economist, published under licence. The original content can be found on www.economist.com<\/i><\/p>\n <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n