The US weather agency Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has lowered the chance of the La Nina weather phenomenon, which leads to heavy rains and floods in India, emerging during July-September 2024 to 65 per cent from 69 per cent a month ago.\u00a0 However, it maintained that there is an 85 per cent chance that La Nina will persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2024-25.\u00a0<\/p>\n
This is because the forecast team of CPC, an arm of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, has found the rate of cooling has slowed since May. However, it still favours the development of La Nina during July-September 2024.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cThe team still favours La Ni\u00f1a to emerge sometime during the summer months, given the persistent below-average subsurface ocean temperatures and changes in the tropical atmospheric circulation,\u201d it said in its \u201cFinal El Nino Advisory and La Nina Watch\u201d on Thursday.\u00a0<\/p>\n
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The US weather agency also confirmed the end of El Nino, which led to drought in many parts of Asia, including India where 25 per cent of the country was hit by drought.\u00a0\u201cENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation)-neutral conditions are present\u2026 ENSO-neutral conditions returned during the past month,\u201d it said.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
CPC\u2019s El Nino predictions are in line with Australia\u2019s Bureau of Meteorology\u2019s forecast that found four of 7 models suggest SSTs (sea surface temperatures) are likely to remain at neutral ENSO levels, with the remaining 3 models showing the possibility of SSTs cooling to La Ni\u00f1a levels from August.<\/p>\n
The Australian weather agency said La Nina may emerge in late 2024. In April, it said El Nino had ended.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, the Bureau of Meteorology said the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. The most recent 6 weeks have seen the IOD index within neutral thresholds, with the latest weekly value close to zero.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n