Graphic: The Economist The Senate, where primacists still hold sway, recently passed a bipartisan bill to provide more military aid to Ukraine (as well as Israel and Taiwan). But the House of Representatives, where MAGA types have more clout, has for months blocked the assistance. They argue America must first adopt strict curbs on migration across America\u2019s southern border (even though, at Mr Trump\u2019s urging, they rejected a bipartisan Senate bid to do just that).<\/p>\n
As a result, ammunition-starved Ukrainian forces are under pressure. Mr Trump professes concern at the bloodshed and promises to resolve the conflict in a day. How? General Keith Kellogg of AFPI, mooted as a possible national security adviser to Mr Trump, argues for a carrot-and-stick approach: tell Ukraine it will lose American support if it refuses to negotiate a deal, and warn Russia America will give Ukraine more and better weapons if the Kremlin does not agree to reasonable terms. Others such as Viktor Orban, the Hungarian prime minister and a darling of American ultra-conservatives, think Mr Trump would simply abandon Ukraine. Either way, the primacists alone will not have the clout to maintain the Biden administration\u2019s generous assistance.<\/p>\n
Beyond Ukraine, Mr Trump says he will not defend \u201cdelinquent” NATO allies (those that do not spend at least 2% of GDP on defence) from Russia: \u201cIn fact, I would encourage [the Russians] to do whatever the hell they want.” Messrs Bolton and Esper think Mr Trump may leave NATO entirely. Mr Rubio dismisses the risk. Primacists see advantage in scaring Europeans into doing more, but would draw the line at abandoning NATO. Indeed, Mr Rubio helped push through legislation that requires the Senate to approve a withdrawal from the alliance. Yet Congress could not stop Mr Trump from undermining NATO so thoroughly\u2014by withdrawing American forces from Europe, say\u2014that it would be tantamount to leaving.<\/p>\n
Mr Kellogg, for one, says countries that do not meet the spending target are violating Article 3 of NATO\u2019s treaty, requiring allies to have the \u201ccapacity to resist armed attack”, so should not benefit from Article 5, which holds that an attack on one is an attack on all. \u201cWe are not quitting on them; they are quitting on us,” he says. Meanwhile, the Centre for Renewing America, another Trumpist think-tank, has published articles advocating a \u201cdormant” NATO, in which America would withdraw ground forces from Europe, while preserving the nuclear umbrella. It is not clear how far a second Trump administration will go, given these divisions, but upheaval for NATO seems inevitable.<\/p>\n
Though increasingly sceptical of Ukraine, Republicans are avidly pro-Israel. According to the latest YouGov survey for The Economist, just 20% of Republicans considered Ukraine an \u201cally”; for Israel the share was 59%. As with Ukraine, Mr Trump claims he could quickly settle the crisis in Gaza but does not say how. He may also seek to renew the effort to crown the Abraham accords with an Israel-Saudi peace deal. There is broad Republican agreement on giving Israel a freer hand in its war with Hamas, on cutting off funds to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, which helps Palestinian refugees, and on reimposing \u201cmaximum pressure” against Iran and its network of proxy militias.<\/p>\n
But there are some cross-currents, too. Scarred by long conflicts in the region, restrainers and prioritisers alike want to avoid war with Iran, so may not be as energetic as Mr Biden in warding off pro-Iranian militias. And they dislike Saudi Arabia\u2019s price for ties with Israel: a formal defence treaty with America. In Congress, moreover, attempts at an Israel-only aid package foundered partly because Republican fiscal hawks demanded measures to pay for it, such as a cut to the Internal Revenue Service, America\u2019s tax-collection agency.<\/p>\n
As for Mr Trump, he holds a grudge against Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel\u2019s prime minister, because he embraced Mr Biden\u2019s election victory in 2020. But more recently Mr Trump has declared, \u201cAny Jewish person that votes for Democrats hates their religion.” And in his love of risky, unorthodox summitry, Mr Trump came close to meeting Iran\u2019s then-president, Hassan Rouhani, on the margins of a G7 meeting in Biarritz in 2019. With restrainers, prioritisers and primacists all pulling in different directions, and Mr Trump himself inconsistent in his views, confusion beckons.<\/p>\n
When it comes to Asia, there is broad consensus about the threat that China poses, but not necessarily about what to do about it. A majority of Republicans\u2014especially those of a MAGA bent\u2014define China as an \u201cenemy”, according to YouGov.<\/p>\n
Hawkish prioritisers want to focus on ensuring Taiwan is sufficiently armed to defend itself against a Chinese invasion, and America has the forces to help it. On this front, though, Mr Trump looks like a restrainer. In the Oval office, Mr Bolton recounts, the ex-president would point to the tip of his Sharpie, likening it to Taiwan. Then he would point to the huge Resolute desk and say, \u201cThis is China.” Mr Trump has also accused Taiwan of, in effect, stealing America\u2019s semiconductor industry.<\/p>\n
The ex-president is keener on trade wars than shooting ones. Although he may again face internal opposition from Reaganites worried about the economic damage, Mr Trump overcame resistance from economic advisers in his first term to bombard friends and foes alike with higher tariffs. He is likely to resort to even heavier guns the second time around. He proposes a uniform 10% levy on all imports. Robert Lighthizer, his former trade representative, seemingly in line for a top job, thinks tariffs should keep rising until America\u2019s trade deficit is eliminated. He wants a 60% tariff on Chinese goods, up from 19% now. That said, insiders say Mr Trump still seeks an eye-catching trade deal with Xi Jinping, China\u2019s leader. He also wants to renegotiate terms with the European Union, which he detests as \u201cworse than China, only smaller”.<\/p>\n
America\u2019s immediate neighbours and biggest trading partners, Canada and Mexico, also have much to worry about. A universal tariff would violate USMCA, the tweaked version of NAFTA that Mr Trump hailed as an \u201camazing deal”. Trade is not the only source of friction, however: Republicans denounce Mexico as a transit country for migrants and a source of drugs, notably fentanyl. Mr Trump once mused about shooting missiles at Mexican drug labs. Others suggest deploying the navy to intercept chemicals used to make fentanyl on their way to Mexico, or even sending special forces to fight drug gangs. It seems safe to assume that relations with Mexico, at least, will suffer.<\/p>\n
Adjudicating among his advisers will not be Mr Trump\u2019s only difficulty in crafting foreign policy. He may also face resistance from the bureaucracy. Trumpist think-tanks are busy vetting candidates to fill the 4,000-odd jobs in the president\u2019s gift, about 1,200 of which require the Senate\u2019s approval, too.<\/p>\n
Some fear Mr Trump may purge some or all of America\u2019s top generals, whom he considers too woke. He has spoken of using troops against rioters or protesters. The generals, says Mr Esper, one of Mr Trump\u2019s estranged former defence secretaries, may be given orders that are \u201cawful but lawful”, as well as a distraction from the main military task of deterring and fighting foreign foes.<\/p>\n
The make-up of Congress will shape Mr Trump\u2019s team, too. If, against the odds, the Democrats retain the Senate, only reasonably moderate nominees for senior jobs will win its approval. If Republicans secure a majority in the chamber, more controversial figures may get the nod. In any case, officials appointed by Mr Trump in an acting capacity can serve for months without Senate confirmation.<\/p>\n
Those close to Mr Trump predict much turbulence. \u201cHe\u2019s going to say a lot of things that make people nervous but that\u2019s because he\u2019ll be telling the truth or negotiating to clean up a lot of mess,” says one.<\/p>\n
What should America\u2019s friends do? \u201cListen to him, treat him with respect and look for compromises,” insiders advise. Many governments are indeed seeking to befriend biddable members of his entourage. Others will look for allies among American businesses and in states that risk being harmed in any trade war. Still others will try to stroke his ego. Britain wowed him with the royal family; France with military parades.<\/p>\n
The diverging experiences of Germany and Japan are instructive. In Mr Trump\u2019s first term both had large trade surpluses with America and spent woefully little on defence. Mr Trump, got on terribly with Angela Merkel yet surprisingly well with Abe Shinzo, their respective leaders at the time. Why? Partly because Japan made some trade concessions and Mr Abe was known as a defence hawk, whereas Ms Merkel was a \u201cblock of stone”.<\/p>\n
Declare America Great Again<\/h2>\n Mr Abe also understood Mr Trump\u2019s weakness for flattery. His posthumous memoirs are packed with tips: craft meetings with Mr Trump to include activities he likes (lots of golf, once with a Japanese pro), his favourite food (burgers), bling (a gold-plated club), pomp (meeting the emperor) and entertainment (ringside sumo). \u201cIt was important to create an environment where we could talk,” wrote Mr Abe. Mr Trump was \u201ccautious about anything that costs money, and thinks about diplomacy and security through an economic lens”. A nervous ambassador in Washington suggests a completely different tactic: \u201cDo you know how to pray?”<\/p>\n
Correction (March 28th 2024): We wrongly stated that Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un met two times. In fact they had three meetings.<\/i><\/p>\n
\u00a9 2024, The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved. From The Economist, published under licence. The original content can be found on www.economist.com<\/i><\/p>\n
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