Weather experts are divided over the emergence of La Nina with the APEC Climate Center (APCC) predicting it to emerge in December. This is contrary to the forecast made by Australia\u2019s Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), which has said chances are remote for the weather event to emerge by February.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cNi\u00f1o 3.4 index is expected to be \u2013 0.9 \u00b0C \u00a0for December 2024 and gradually increase to -0.1 \u00b0C for April 2025. La Ni\u00f1a conditions are most probable (~65 per cent) for November 2024-January 2025, with a shift to ENSO-neutral conditions expected to be more probable (59 per cent) from February-April 2025,\u201d the APCC said in its latest update.<\/p>\n
Last week, BoM said chances of a La Ni\u00f1a event developing in the coming months had decreased compared to recent outlooks. \u201cIf a La Ni\u00f1a were to develop, it is forecast to be relatively weak (in terms of the strength of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly) and short-lived, with all models forecasting neutral values in February,\u201d it said.<\/p>\n
\nCPC pares chances
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The Climate Prediction Center of the US, an arm of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), recently reduced the chance of La Nina emerging during September-November to 60 per cent. In September, it said there was a 71 per cent chance of the weather event.\u00a0<\/p>\n
It predicted the event to persist through January-March 2025. \u201cThe (CPC) team still favours a weak event, but has lowered the chances of La Ni\u00f1a. A weaker La Ni\u00f1a implies that it would be less likely to result in conventional winter impacts, though predictable signals could still influence the forecast guidance,\u201d the US weather agency said.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Earlier this month, the India Meteorological Department predicted a higher probability of La Ni\u00f1a conditions developing during the post-monsoon season, 2024.<\/p>\n
\nAbove-normal global temperature
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APCC predicted\u00a0 a \u201cstrongly enhanced probability\u201d for above-normal temperatures for most of the globe except for the central and eastern tropical and subtropical Pacific between November 2024 and April 2025.<\/p>\n
It predicted above-normal temperatures in the Indian Ocean region \u2014 excluding the southern region \u2014 the Arctic, Pacific (excluding central and eastern tropical region), Atlantic, South-East Asia, Central and South America and southern Africa.<\/p>\n
For South Asia, particularly India, APCC has forecast a 80 per cent chance of above-normal temperature during November 2024-April 2025 and a 37.4 per cent probability of above-normal rainfall. It has given another 35.3 per cent chance of a near-normal rainfall in the region during the period.\u00a0<\/p>\n