La Nina, rain-bearing weather event in Asia and India in particular, is unlikely before the last week of September 2024, when the Southern Hemisphere spring begins, Australia\u2019s Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has said.<\/p>\n
\u201cENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) is likely to remain neutral until at least early spring. Three of 7 climate models suggest the possibility of SSTs reaching the La Ni\u00f1a threshold (below \u22120.8 \u00b0C) by October. The remaining 4 models suggest a continuation of ENSO-neutral throughout the forecast period,\u201d it said in its climate update driver on Tuesday.<\/p>\n
Spring begins on September 22 in the southern hemisphere. BoM forecast is line with the US Climate Prediction Center\u2019s (CPC) outlook that a transition to La Ni\u00f1a (from the current ENSO neutral conditions) is likely around August-October 2024, while the average of the statistical models predicts ENSO neutral.<\/p>\n
\nSteady cooling
\n<\/h5>\n
On Monday night, the US weather agency said the most-recent Ocean Nino Index value (April-June 2024) is 0.4\u00baC.\u00a0 CPC considers El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a conditions to occur when the monthly ONI departures meet or exceed +\/-0.5\u00baC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.<\/p>\n
BoM said ENSO is currently neutral and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean are ENSO-neutral, following a steady cooling from El Ni\u00f1o levels since December 2023.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cThis cooling is being sustained by deep waters surfacing in the central and eastern Pacific. However, the rate and extent of cooling both at and below the surface has decreased since May. Atmospheric patterns, including cloud and trade winds, are currently ENSO-neutral,\u201d it said.<\/p>\n
\n\u2018La Nina watch\u2019
\n<\/h5>\n
However, the Australian weather agency said ENSO outlook remains at La Ni\u00f1a Watch. \u201cLa Ni\u00f1a Watch does not guarantee La Ni\u00f1a development, only that there is about an equal chance of ENSO remaining neutral or La Ni\u00f1a developing during the remainder of 2024,\u201d the weather agency said.<\/p>\n
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. The latest model outlooks indicate that the IOD is likely to remain neutral until at least the end of winter (August 2024).\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cThree of 5 climate models suggest that during spring, negative IOD development is likely, while 2 forecast a neutral or positive state of the IOD,\u201d the Australian agency said.<\/p>\n
La Nina was initially forecast to emerge in July but the slowing of the cooling in the sea surface temperature has delayed the event. La Nina usually succeeds El Nino, which ended in April.<\/p>\n
El Nino, which emerged in June 2023, resulted in global temperatures rising to a record for 13 consecutive months till June. It also resulted in a quarter of India being affected by drought besides impacting agricultural production.\u00a0<\/p>\n