The opposition would have been in a better position in Lok Sabha Elections 2024, had it not missed multiple opportunities to resurrect when Prime Minister Narendra Modi led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was on a back foot, according to political strategist Prashant Kishor.
The first such occasion, Kishor said, was in 2015 and 2016 when the BJP lost multiple state assembly elections.
“In January 2015, the Aam Aadmi Party won Delhi assembly elections. The BJP lost Bihar elections in November, the same year. The next year until May, assembly elections were held in Assam, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal. The BJP could win only Assam, that too in an alliance. Those 15-18 months were an opportunity for the Congress-led opposition could have bounced back since PM Modi’s popularity had just begun to rise (post 2014),” Kishor told NDTV in an interview.
Also Read: Lok Sabha elections: Did Prashant Kishor predict BJP’s win? ‘Unless there is widespread anger or clamour for rivals…’
Another opportunity that the opposition had, according to Kishor, was after 2016 demonetisation of ₹500 and ₹1,000 banknotes by the PM Modi-led government.
“There was a kind of turbulence in the country. You can call it economic or rural distress. The BJP won the UP assembly elections in 2017 but if you remember there was protest by Patels ahead of Gujarat elections. There were protests in Maharashtra too,” Kishor said.
That was not a good time for the BJP and PM Modi, he said. “In November 2017 Gujarat polls, the Congress, though lost, but performed well. The BJP could somehow manage to win by 15 odd seats. In the coming months, the BJP lost Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh elections. So this was another 15-17 month period from mid 2017 till end of 2018 when the BJP was on the back foot but the opposition missed the chance,” Kishor said.
Kishor said the opposition missed another opportunity in June 2021 post second Covid-19 wave when there was a dip in the Prime Minister’s approval ratings. The BJP had just lost the West Bengal state elections, then, he said.
“The last chance for the opposition was when many parties came together and former INDIA bloc in June 2023. And there was a murmur across the country that at least, we have a challenge coming up against the BJP which could have ended with 220-240 seats in 2024 elections. But for months there was no movement forward,” Kishor told NDTV.
Also Read: ‘BJP will lose majority only when…’: Prashant Kishor predicts ‘massive advantage’ to NDA in Lok Sabha Elections 2024
Kishor has predicted that Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led BJP will return to power in Lok Sabha Elections 2024.
And I am told that the Congress predicted victory in five assembly elections in November-December 2023, which it didn’t. They though INDIA bloc would start the Lok Sabha Elections 2024 from a position of strength. And in this thought they lost the crucial 4-5 months while the BJP had already started campaigning under PM Modi. In fact, for two months after the Ram Mandir event, the opposition had almost given up. And by the time they woke up in February, it was too late,” he said.
With voting in 49 seats being held in the phase 5 on May 20, the election to 428 of the 543 seats is over. The remaining two phases will be held on May 25 and June 1. Counting votes for all seven Lok Sabha Elections phases will occur on June 4.
The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), seeking a record third term under PM Narendra Modi, has set a target of winning 400 seats this election. The ruling alliance is challenged by the opposition parties led by the Congress under the banner of the INDIA bloc.
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Published: 22 May 2024, 08:07 AM IST
