The southwest monsoon that contributes 75 per cent of the annual rainfall on Thursday hit India’s mainland, a day before the India Meteorological Department’s prediction. The monsoon had advanced into the Andaman and Nicobar Islands on May 19.
“Southwest Monsoon has set in over Kerala and advanced into most parts of north-east India today, on May 30, 2024,” IMD said in a statement.
Kerala and states in the northeast region have been experiencing heavy to very heavy rainfall in the past few days. A team of the National Disaster Relief Force reached the northeast region on Wednesday as there were reports of deaths due to heavy rains.
- Read: Positive IOD may re-emerge this year, likely to boost south-west monsoon
“A cyclonic circulation lies over north-east Assam and neighbourhood in lower and middle tropospheric levels. Under its influence fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rainfall accompanied with thunderstorm, lightning and gusty winds (30-40 kmph) are likely to be experienced over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim during next seven days,” IMD said in a bulletin.
Also, isolated heavy/very heavy rainfall is very likely over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim during the next five days, and isolated heavy rainfall over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura on Thursday, IMD said.
The weather bureau on May 28 released its second monsoon forecast and said that rainfall is likely to be above normal at 106 per cent of the long-period average (LPA) of 87 cm this year. Rainfall in June will be normal, which is 92-108 per cent of the long period average (LPA) of 16.69 cm, IMD’s director general M Mohapatra had said.
- Read: Editorial. Prospects of above-normal monsoon seem bright
While central and south peninsular India will receive above-normal rainfall (106 per cent of LPA), the north-western part, a key region for the production of kharif crops, will likely receive 108 per cent of the LPA rainfall, according to IMD.
However, the IMD said the northeastern part of the country will receive below-normal rainfall at less than 94 per cent of the LPA. Mohapatra said the monsoon Core Zone, consisting of most of the country’s rainfed agriculture areas, is likely above normal (more than 106 per cent of LPA). This zone comprises parts of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, parts of Jharkhand, and Telangana.
The rainfall in the pre-monsoon season from March 1 until May 29 was 4 per cent below normal at 12.08 cm, against 12.58 cm considered normal for this period. On May 29 alone, the pan India rainfall was 54 per cent above average as Kerala reported 3.13 cm rainfall against 1.34 normal for the day while Arunachal Pradesh reported 3.46 cm rainfall (against the day’s normal of 1.26 cm), Assam and Meghalaya together had 4.55 cm (1.22 cm normal), Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura together had 3.96 cm (0.98 cm).
